Abstract: Inductive reasoning is complicated. According to Bayesianism, it involves assigning prior credences to every conceivable possibility about the future. That's a lot of possibilities. However, useful insights about inductive reasoning and Humean inductive skepticism can be gained by considering simplified models of such reasoning in worlds with fewer possibilities. That is the working hypothesis of this paper.
Keywords: Induction, Bayesian Solution, Nomological-Explanatory Solution
Abstract: The thought experiment of the Presumptious Philosopher was introduced by Bostrom to show that certain theories of anthropic reasoning have obviously unacceptable consequences, namely those theories that imply that an epistemic agent should shift his or her credences towards theories according to which many subjects exist in the history of the universe. By way of historical case studies, this paper attempts to reverse the intuition that this thought experiment has elicited from Bostrom and most other participants in the debate: reasoning “presumptuously” is rational and would have been useful to historical cosmologist. What I defend is approximately the conjunction of the so-called Self-Sampling and Self-Indication Assumptions, but I close the paper by explaining why this conjunction is not entirely correct, and by suggesting an alternative approach to anthropic reasoning.
Keywords: Anthropic Reasoning, History of Cosmology, Bayesianism, The Presumptious Philosopher, The Self-Indication Assumption